Along the diverse and resource-rich East African coastline, the escalating impacts of climate change are not merely environmental concerns; they are rapidly morphing into critical maritime security challenges. Countries like Kenya, Tanzania, and Mozambique, already contending with socio-economic pressures, now face a new front in securing their maritime domains as environmental shifts erode traditional stability.
Rising sea levels and increased frequency of extreme weather events are causing significant coastal erosion, threatening vital infrastructure, displacing communities, and altering coastlines. This leads to internal migration and competition for shrinking arable land and resources, escalating social tensions. Concurrently, fisheries collapse, driven by ocean warming, acidification, and overfishing, devastates livelihoods in coastal communities. As traditional economic mainstays disappear, desperation can drive individuals towards illicit activities, including piracy, illegal fishing, and smuggling, directly impacting maritime security.
The link between environmental stress and strategic vulnerability is becoming increasingly clear. Displaced populations, struggling for survival, can become susceptible to recruitment by extremist groups or engage in cross-border illicit activities, destabilizing fragile states. The porous maritime borders, exacerbated by weakened state control in affected areas, provide fertile ground for the movement of contraband, arms, and even radicalized elements.
For East African littoral states, adapting to climate change is no longer just an environmental imperative but a crucial component of national security. Addressing these challenges requires integrated approaches that combine climate resilience strategies with enhanced maritime domain awareness, capacity building for law enforcement, and regional cooperation. The future stability of this critical segment of the Indian Ocean’s western rim will increasingly depend on its ability to mitigate and adapt to the profound security implications of a changing climate.